/ January 14
-
Tuesday:
PPI MoM (0.3% exp.)
---
Wednesday:
Core Inflation Rate YoY (3.3% exp.)
Inflation Rate YoY (2.8% exp.)---
Thursday:
Retail Sales MoM (0.5% exp.)
Initial Jobless Claims (214K exp.)---
Friday:
Building Permits Prel (1.46M exp.)Housing Starts (1.32M exp.)
-
Tuesday:
N/A
---
Wednesday:
JPMorgan Chase JPM
BlackRock BLK
Goldman Sachs GS
Wells Fargo WFC
---
Thursday:
UnitedHealth Group UNH
Bank of America BAC
Morgan Stanley MS
---
Friday:
SLB SLB
Regions Financial RFState Street STT
Daily Briefing
*The stock market started the week on a mixed note; the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) closed lower, clipped by losses in the mega cap space, while the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Russell 2000 (+0.2%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%) closed higher;
*Futures indicated a lower open in the early morning, but buying eventually picked up in the second half of the session and into the close; the downside bias was related to rising market rates and ongoing concerns about inflation; CPI inflation will be reported tomorrow, so traders still have time to position accordingly;
*SPY managed to hold its 100-DMA yesterday and bounced from from below this level; there is a cluster of resistance forming above, including the recent lows ($584), the 50-DMA ($593) and the M-Trend level ($604); the way the market responds to these technical levels will answer our question of whether this episode is a range-bound consolidation or a more pronounced decline;
*The MACD signal continues to lose momentum and decline in the lower part of the panel; once exhaustion is reached, these levels are good enough to suggest that a positive crossover can be more meaningful for an upside continuation;
*Rising oil prices ($78.99/bbl, +2.67, +3.6%) and the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations stoked the market's fears about higher inflation for longer; expectations were unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year ahead horizon and increased to 3.0% from 2.6% at the three-year-ahead horizon; they declined to 2.7% from 2.9% at the five-year-ahead horizon;
*There was no specific catalyst to account for buying in the afternoon; it’s entirely possible that selling had been exhausted to a certain extent; early on, market breadth favored decliners by a 3-to-2 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq; at the close, advancers led decliners by an 11-to-10 margin at the NYSE and decliners led advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq;
*Outsized moves in the equity market were reserved for individual names with specific news items; UnitedHealth (UNH, +3.9%) jumped in response to news that the U.S. proposed a 4.3% increase to Medicare Advantage plan payments, a $21 billion boost to insurers for Medicare payments, according to Bloomberg;
*Moderna (MRNA, -16.8%) was one of the biggest individual losers after slashing its FY25 revenue outlook;
*Bank stocks outperformed in front earnings reports this week from big names in the sector; Financials (XLF, +0.72%) bounced nicely from M-Trend support;
*There was no US economic data of note;
*The 10-yr yield rose another three basis points to 4.80% and the 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 4.40%; the 30-yr bond yield settled just below 5.00%, up two basis points to 4.99%;
*TLT remains technically un-investible by a large margin;
*Signal Sigma Strategies are rebalancing portfolios today, so look out for Trade Alerts in your inbox; we’ll cover all of the relevant platform metrics in our weekly Portfolio Rebalancing Article;