/ January 29
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Wednesday:
Fed Interest Rate Decision (no change expected)
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Thursday:
Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2.8% exp.)
Initial Jobless Claims (220K exp.)
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Friday:
Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.2% exp.)
Personal Income MoM (0.4% exp.)Personal Spending MoM (0.4% exp.)
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Wednesday:
Meta Platforms META
Microsoft MSFT
Tesla TSLA
ASML ASML
General Dynamics GD
International Business Machines IBM
Lam Research LRCX
ServiceNow NOW
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Thursday:
Apple AAPL
AppFolio APPF
Deckers Outdoor DECK
Atlassian TEAM
Blackstone BX
Caterpillar CAT
Mastercard MA
Northrop Grumman NOC
United Parcel Service UPS
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Friday:
AbbVie ABBV
Colgate-Palmolive CL
Exxon Mobil XOM
Phillips 66 PSX
Daily Briefing
*The stock market had a recovery session, following sharp declines in response to the news about DeepSeek; The S&P 500 closed +0.9% higher than its prior close and the Nasdaq Composite jumped +2.0%, closing near their best levels of the day; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) and Russell 2000 (+0.2%) also closed in positive territory;
*Predictably, leadership for the day was provided by names which slumped in Monday’s session, namely mega-caps and chipmakers; NVIDIA (NVDA, +8.8%) was chief among them after logging its largest single-day loss in market capitalization ever in the previous session; shares were trading higher through most of the day, but buying picked up in the afternoon trade;
*SPY trades in a consolidation pattern between the 50-DMA, which was successfully tested at $595 and $610 resistance; the impetus remains to the upside, mainly as a function of the market “not doing anything wrong”; the sluggish momentum since early December is becoming more and more obvious, as the market has struggled more than before to reach all-time-highs; the only silver lining remains a less-extreme overbought score at the moment;
*The MACD signal is indicating potential follow-through to the upside, at least once the histogram extension becomes more reasonable - at the moment, we can interpret the recovery momentum as being a bit “too hot”, despite the volatility in the last couple of days;
*Compared to the scope of Monday’s declines, gains were still muted; for comparison, NVDA shares plunged -17%, and recovered to -9.54% from Friday’s close; the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOXX) sank -9.2% on Monday and finished to -7.39% from Friday’s close; we can barely make out the bounce on the chart;
*Microsoft (MSFT, +2.9%) and Meta Platforms (META, +2.2%), which report quarterly results after Wednesday's close, along with Apple (AAPL, +3.7%), which reports earnings after Thursday's close, were among the top performers of the day;
*Buying interest in mega caps and semiconductor shares didn't pass through to the broader equity market; to that point, the equal-weighted S&P 500 closed -0.5% lower and 9 of the 12 S&P 500 sectors registered losses ranging from -0.2% (financials) to -1.5% (consumer staples);
*There were some mixed responses to earnings announcements on the day: Royal Caribbean (RCL, +12.0%) and Boeing (BA, +1.5%) rose, while General Motors (GM, -8.9%), and Lockheed Martin (LMT, -9.2%) sank;
*December Durable Orders came in at -2.2%; new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.5% on the heels of a 0.9% increase in November, thereby softening the disappointment of the headline number;
*Dollar Transaction Volume climbed near recent peaks, as dip-buyers swooped in to take advantage of lower prices; we see this as a positive development at the moment, since added liquidity helps tone down volatility in markets;
*January Consumer Confidence was reported at 104.1 (vs. consensus of 108.1) — concerns about the labor market and inflation weighed on the outlook, as the metric declined for the second straight month;
*Treasuries barely budged; TLT declined -0.07% and remains below our stop level ($89);