MSFT Stock Report

Following yesterday’s Q1 Earnings Report, we ran Microsoft’s latest results through our DCF Model Projector (a feature of PRO memberships). Here’s what we found:

Revenue

Revenues of 50.1B came in at the lower bound of our projection for the quarter, marking a 10.61% increase YoY. We have projected revenues accordingly for the next 7 quarters.

Gross Margin

Gross profit margin came in at 68%, at the middle of our projection. We are working with the assumption this metric will steadily decline in the following quarters, following the trend set in the past.


 

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Operating Expenses

The company has accelerated Operating Expenses to the high range of our projection. We have modeled the following 7 quarters accordingly.

Valuation

Our assumption is that MSFT’s valuation will decrease, according to the recent trend. The low end of the implied trend gets us to 8.86 EV / Sales.

We will work with this number in order to compute the price target.


Conclusion

Our system outputs a price target of $285, using the provided assumptions. Due to declining revenue growth and overall headwinds cited on the call, we are assigning a HOLD rating.

You can find a table of all published stock reports and ratings here. You can also request a similar stock report for any ticker, using the same page.

MSFT - Microsoft Corporation

Andrei Sota

Disclosures / Disclaimers: This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter. Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

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